Auto execs less confident in EV adoption amid economic fears: KPMG

A NYC charging station in the Yorkville neighborhood of New York City.

Adam Jeffery | CNBC

DETROIT — Global auto industry executives are less confident about electric vehicle adoption rates than they were a year ago amid supply chain problems and mounting economic concerns, according to a study released Tuesday.

Of more than 900 auto industry executives who participated in KPMG’s annual Global Auto Survey, 76% report being concerned that inflation and high interest rates will hurt their business in the coming year. . In the United States alone, this number put him at 84%.

Amid these concerns, auto industry executives are less bullish about fully electric vehicles in the U.S. and globally by 2030, according to a KPMG report. 70% from 20% in the same period last year.

In the U.S., the median forecast for EV sales is 35% of the new car market, down from 65% a year earlier and well below the Biden administration’s 50% target by 2030 announced late last year.

Gary Silberg, KPMG’s global head of automotive, told CNBC: “There is still optimism in the long term, but most importantly, there is a sense of realism in the short term. It’s possible, and you can see this realism throughout the research.”

The decline in optimism in EV adoption comes as federal incentive requirements for vehicles tighten. Growing concerns about battery raw materials. Record the vehicle price. Such concerns are on top of other supply chain issues and recession concerns.

“You can be optimistic in the long term, but you have to be very realistic in the short term,” said Silberg. “No longer rainbows and butterflies and euphoria, the game has begun.”

Tesla vs Apple?

Executives participating in the survey expect: Tesla To remain the global leader in EV, the lead is much narrower.

Perhaps most surprisingly, management also says it believes in tech giants. appleIt has been rumored that the vehicle has been in development for many years.

Apple received 133 votes in the EV leadership survey. This is his fourth highest number of votes after Tesla (223 votes), Audi (206 votes) and BMW (196 votes). A year ago he had 91 votes, even though Apple has never publicly confirmed plans for the vehicle.

Silberg said the sentiment surrounding Apple is based on its brand, its experience in mass production, and Foxconn, which currently makes the iPhone. The contract manufacturer recently entered the auto industry, manufacturing electric pickups in Ohio, and executives have expressed plans for further growth in the segment.

After Apple, the top 10 brands were Ford, Honda, BYD, Hyundai Kia, Mercedes-Benz and Toyota.the unexpected drop general motorsNot a single automaker brand made the top 12. That is despite the automaker investing billions in the technology and by 2035 he has a goal of selling only EVs.

KPMG left the term ‘leadership’ to respondents’ interpretation.

Watch CNBC's full interview with Loup Ventures' Gene Munster about Apple's self-driving car report.

fear of recession

KPMG did not use the term recession in its published findings, but Silberg said it was reflected in economic concerns about inflation and high interest rates.

Such concerns are linked to ongoing supply chain challenges for automakers, from EV raw materials to semiconductor chips. A separate study of semiconductors sees automotive as the most important sector to drive earnings over the next year. This is the first time in his 18 years of research, according to KPMG, which predicts automotive semiconductor revenues will exceed $250 billion by 2040.

Despite concerns, 83% of auto industry executives surveyed around the world say they are ‘confident’ in increasing profits over the next five years, up from last year’s result of 53% doing.

In the US, 82% of executives say they are “confident” of profitable growth over the next five years, compared to 67% in 2021.

KPMG surveyed 915 executives in October. Over 200 respondents were his CEO and 209 were other executives. More than 300 of his respondents were from North America, including his 252 from the United States.

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