Tesla leads the charge as used car prices finally begin to tumble


(iSeeCars) — It’s all cyclical and the last two-plus-year “crazy car price” cycle for good reason appears to be finally coming to an end. This was the first year-on-year decrease since June 2020, more than two and a half years ago.

overview

  • Used car prices fell 2% in November and 3% in December
  • Average used car price topped $1,000 in December, the biggest drop in more than two years
  • The Tesla Model 3 suffered its biggest loss in months, down nearly 17% since September.
  • Prices for the Chevrolet Volt, Nissan Leaf and Prius Prime are still up more than 20% year-on-year, and most electric and hybrid vehicles remain popular.

It’s all in a cycle, and what could be called the “crazy car price” cycle of the past two-plus years is finally coming to an end. Used car prices have fallen below the same month of the previous year for the second consecutive month, and have fallen below the same month of the previous year for the first time since June 2020, more than two and a half years ago.

Karl Brauer, Executive Analyst at iSeeCars.com, said: “Given the macroeconomic factors we have seen over the last six months, it was easy to predict. The next big question is how far and how fast car prices will fall.”

big changes in the last few months

September-December 2022 month-by-month used car price year-over-year

Change in used car prices, 2022 and 2021September to December – iSeeCars Survey
Moon average used car price $ Price change from 2021 Price change rate from 2021
December $33,582 -$1,043 -3.0%
November $31,823 -$697 -2.1%
October $32,740 $1,133 3.6%
September $33,368 $2,414 7.8%

The year-on-year difference, which moved from a nearly 8% gain in September to a 3% decline just four months later, indicates a significant shift in used car price momentum. The price had been falling monthly for he in 2022, but it wasn’t until November that he fell below 2021 levels, and it fell further in December. “We’ll have to get a sense of how far and how quickly prices will fall over the next two to three months, but the trend is undeniable at this point,” said Brauer.

Used cars with the biggest price declines in December 2022 and September 2022

Top 10 cars with the highest depreciation (December 2022 vs. September 2022) – iSeeCars Survey
rank Secondhand car Average used car price (December 2022) $ Price change from September Price volatility from September
1 Tesla Model 3 $43,817 -$8,822 -16.8%
2 nissan kicks $20,046 -$2,718 -11.9%
3 ford mustang $26,852 -$3,495 -11.5%
Four Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid $20,542 -$2,527 -11.0%
Five Toyota RAV4 $28,383 -$2,766 -8.9%
6 Jaguar E-PACE $35,221 -$3,052 -8.0%
7 GMC Acadia $30,922 -$2,590 -7.7%
8 ford ecosport $20,064 -$1,515 -7.0%
9 toyota camry $25,521 -$1,912 -7.0%
Ten Audi SQ5 $44,447 -$3,228 -6.8%
average for all cars $33,582 $214 0.6%

Looking at the prices over the past four months, we can get a timely picture of the market movement as the used car momentum has changed. “Price volatility since September has been the biggest for any model in recent months, with the Tesla Model 3 losing almost 17% of its value and the Nissan Kicks, Ford Mustang and Hyundai Ionic Hybrid all dropping more than 10%. It shows how you got hit,” Brauer said.

Used cars with the biggest price increases between December 2022 and September 2022

Top 10 cars with the highest price increases (December 2022 vs. September 2022) – iSeeCars Survey
rank Secondhand car Average Used Car Prices, December 2022 $ Price change from September Price volatility from September
1 cadillac escalade $76,040 $9,867 14.9%
2 porsche 911 $198,076 $25,577 14.8%
3 mercedes benz s class $89,403 $10,737 13.6%
Four Maserati Levante $61,240 $7,170 13.3%
Five Mercedes-Benz GLS $68,880 $8,008 13.2%
6 Maserati Ghibli $50,606 $5,879 13.1%
7 Cadillac Escalade ESV $73,093 $8,206 12.6%
8 BMW 7 series $61,875 $5,638 10.0%
9 Acura MDX $41,120 $3,446 9.1%
Ten chevrolet corvette $85,834 $7,089 9.0%
average for all cars $33,582 $214 0.6%

There are clear themes that point to recent resistance to price cuts across the auto market. They’re all luxury or performance models, suggesting that wealthier used-car shoppers are still enthusiastic and willing to pay for the cars they want.

Prices have changed since December last year.

Used cars with the biggest price declines in December 2022 and December 2021

Top 10 cars with the highest depreciation (Dec 2022 vs Dec 2021) – iSeeCars Survey
rank Secondhand car Average used car price (December 2022) $ Price change from 2021 Price change rate from 2021
1 Nissan Armada $33,621 -$6,846 -16.9%
2 Ford Expedition MAX $48,137 -$8,606 -15.2%
3 Jaguar E-PACE $35,221 -$6,039 -14.6%
Four ford mustang $26,852 -$4,189 -13.5%
Five Infiniti QX80 $44,104 -$6,686 -13.2%
6 Tesla Model 3 $43,817 -$5,744 -11.6%
7 Land Rover Range Rover Velar $49,700 -$6,370 -11.4%
8 Audi SQ5 $44,447 -$5,527 -11.1%
9 chevrolet camaro $31,604 -$3,655 -10.4%
Ten Mercedes-Benz G-Class $183,704 -$20,453 -10.0%
average for all cars $33,582 -$1,043 -3.0%

Many of the cars that saw the biggest declines in the last 12 months were among the most popular models at some point during the pandemic. As Brauer noted, “Cars such as the Chevrolet Camaro, Ford Mustang, Mercedes-Benz G-Class and Tesla Model 3 have generally led price increases at the height of the pandemic.”

Used cars with the biggest price increases in December 2022 and December 2021

Top 10 cars with the highest price increases (Dec 2022 vs Dec 2021) – iSeeCars Survey
rank Secondhand car Average used car price (December 2022) $ Price change from 2021 Price change rate from 2021
1 toyota prius prime $32,131 $5,891 22.5%
2 nissan leaf $28,314 $4,898 20.9%
3 Chevrolet Volt EV $27,339 $4,702 20.8%
Four porsche 911 $198,076 $28,494 16.8%
Five MINI Clubman $29,409 $3,616 14.0%
6 toyota camry hybrid $31,443 $3,405 12.1%
7 Honda Accord Hybrid $32,811 $3,545 12.1%
8 toyota prius $27,397 $2,930 12.0%
9 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid $37,702 $3,904 11.6%
Ten Volkswagen Golf GTI $29,761 $3,077 11.5%
average for all cars $33,582 -$1,043 -3.0%

“Although the overall used car market remains sluggish, hybrid, electric and performance vehicles remain popular and prices remain high as supply and demand are out of balance,” Brauer said. said Mr. Toyota Prius Prime, Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt are still up more than 20%, while Porsche 911, Mini Clubman and Volkswagen Golf GTI have also shown resilience to market declines.

Used car price trends by body type December 2022 vs. December 2021

Average price trends by body type (December 2022 vs December 2021) – iSeeCars Survey
figure Average used car price (December 2022) $ Price change from 2021 Price change rate from 2021
hatchback $26,678 $1,917 7.7%
coupe $50,466 $2,321 4.8%
wagon $20,228 $69 0.3%
sedan $27,936 -$589 -2.1%
truck $40,594 -$1,060 -2.5%
SUV $33,770 -$1,003 -2.9%
average for all cars $33,582 -$1,043 -3.0%
convertible $50,304 -$2,154 -4.1%
minivan $31,875 -$2,017 -6.0%

Hatchbacks, coupes and wagons make up a small portion of the automotive market and remain in strong demand relative to supply. Mainstream segments like sedans, trucks and SUVs are all down this year. His two other niche segments, convertibles and minivans, have fallen the most. Some of the price reductions in these two segments reflect seasonal demand, with minivans and convertibles popular for recreational driving during the spring and summer months.

Changes in used car prices by fuel between December 2022 and December 2021

Prices for electric and hybrid vehicles (Dec 2022 vs Dec 2021) – iSeeCars Survey
fuel type Average used car price (December 2022) $ Price change from 2021 Price change rate from 2021
hybrid $36,954.5 $3,197 9.5%
Electrical $51,530.3 -$1,569 -3.0%
average for all cars $33,582.2 -$1,043 -3.0%
non-hybrid/electric $33,313.3 -$1,166 -3.4%

Hybrids continue to be popular in the used car market, with prices still above last year’s levels. As a stepping stone between conventional gasoline and pure electric vehicles, hybrids offer significantly better fuel efficiency than their predecessors, without the high purchase price and range concerns associated with EVs.

Conclusion

Overall, used car prices are falling. That means consumers waiting for prices to drop won’t have to wait too long. Prices are still above pre-pandemic levels, but all signs suggest they will continue to fall, creating buying opportunities in the coming months for shoppers who have waited on the sidelines for the past two years. indicates a high probability.

Related research:

methodology

iSeeCars.com analyzed over 1.9 million used car sales aged 1-5 in December 2021 and December 2022. He compares the average list price of each car model between the two periods and measures the difference between the 2021 price and the dollar difference. Heavy-duty vehicles, low-volume vehicles, vehicles discontinued in model year 2022, and vehicles less than four years old in each period’s five model years were excluded from further analysis.


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