Pratt criticized such awkward ambitions as Happy Talk.
“The thing that has to change is that we have to mature a little bit and stop being wishful thinking,” he said. Constraints in development, both material resources and charging infrastructure and renewable power…if that is true, how can we reduce the total amount of carbon dioxide we accumulate? ?
“This is a mature argument, not a kind of dream argument.”
Toyota draws from several projections that show lithium battery demand will continue to outstrip lithium supply through 2040.
The reason is that it takes only 2-3 years to open a new battery factory, but up to 16 years to dig a new mine. “There will be delays in all mining setups,” Pratt said.
The pinch isn’t limited to lithium.
Industry research also shows shortages of many other metals needed in batteries, including nickel and manganese, Pratt said. Not only will the supply of EVs be squeezed, but shortages of these materials could also drive up battery costs.And higher sticker prices are likely to weaken consumer demand for EVs, he predicted. .
“Despite the enormous shortages, we have to somehow reduce our carbon footprint as quickly as possible,” Pratt said. , it is a big challenge. ”
Pratt said his family’s experience owning a Tesla Model X inspired him to dig into the battery issue. But his wife usually drives less than 30 miles a day. This means that her 90% of the lithium-ion battery is dead weight.
“It’s an incredible waste of material,” said Toyota’s chief scientist.
“I think what is needed is a little more candor from OEMs, both with the public and with policy makers.”