U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2022 Down 8% Year Over Year, as General Motors Reclaims Top Spot, Honda and Nissan Fall Significantly


  • Cox Automotive expects US car sales to reach nearly 13.9 million in 2022. This is down nearly 8.0% from his 15.1 million units in 2021 and down 20% from the 2016 market peak.
  • The pace of annual car sales in December is expected to end near 13.2 million, down 900,000 from last month’s 14.1 million, but up from last year’s 12.7 million.
  • General Motors is expected to regain the title as the top seller in the US market from Toyota Motor Corporation. Tesla gains more share in his 2022, Honda, Nissan drop.

Atlanta, December 28, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — New vehicle sales expected to reach 1.27 million in December December 2021According to forecasts released today by Cox Automotive, December volume is expected to increase by nearly 11% compared to last month, mainly due to two more selling days in December.of December 2022 However, the pace of car sales, or seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), is expected to end at nearly 13.2 million, down significantly from November’s pace of 14.1 million.

2022 full-year sales volume basis kelly blue book, down 8% from 2021, to finish near 13.9 million units, the lowest level since 2011 when total new car sales recovered from the Great Recession and reached just 12.7 million units. Sales in 2022 are projected to be lower than the 2020 total as the COVID-19 pandemic brought much of the US economy to a halt.Sales in 2020, according to kelly blue book The number was 14.6 million.

2022, which started with a supply problem, will end with a demand problem. Inventory levels have increased since the end of the summer, and those increases support increased sales. But supply growth has been uneven, with many of the Detroit Three’s top products having ample supply, while many Asian bestsellers are barely available. reached 15.1 million. This is his highest level since January and may be the result of improved inventory. As inventories improved, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes pushed the cost of auto loans to levels not seen in more than 20 years, prompting some shoppers to move into the market on concerns about car affordability. being kicked out of Since October, the pace of sales has slowed significantly, dropping nearly 2 million units.

“We had fewer giant red bows than dealers wanted in December of this year,” he said. Charles Chesbrough, Senior Economist at Cox Automotive. “Rising interest rates appear to be holding back demand in the automotive retail market, given that supply levels have improved significantly. The pool of people is shrinking.”

Heading into 2023, Cox Automotive expects economic growth to slow as the Federal Reserve tightens financial conditions and consumers struggle with high interest rates. New vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly compared to 2022. Affordability will continue to be a challenge for car buyers next year. Cox Automotive’s 10 predictions for 2023 were published last week in the Cox Automotive Newsroom.

December 2022 Forecast Highlights

  • New mini vehicle sales are expected to increase by 3.8% from the previous month. December 2021 and 11.2% from last month.
  • of SAARs December 2022 is estimated at 13.2 million, above last December’s 12.7 million level but down from last month’s 14.1 pace.
  • December 2022 has 27 days of sales, the same as in 2021, but two days more than in November.

December 2022 U.S. new car sales forecast


Sales forecast1

market share


segment

December 22nd

December 21st

November 22

year-on-year

Minutes%

December 22nd

November 22

Minutes


midsize car

85,000

65,753

78,165

29.3%

8.7%

6.7%

6.9%

-0.2%


compact car

75,000

69,317

63,589

8.2%

17.9%

5.9%

5.6%

0.3%


compact SUV/crossover

185,000

180,521

169,726

2.5%

9.0%

14.6%

14.9%

-0.3%


large pickup truck

180,000

181,730

163,462

-1.0%

10.1%

14.2%

14.4%

-0.1%


Midsize SUV/Crossover

225,000

228,252

198,256

-1.4%

13.5%

17.8%

17.4%

0.4%


total2

1,265,000

1,218,622

1,137,334

3.8%

11.2%





1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights Data

2 Total includes segments not shown

2022 Full Year Forecast Highlights

  • New car sales are expected to decline 8.0% from 2021 to approximately 13.9 million units, according to Cox Automotive analysis. kelly blue book sales quote. New car sales in 2022 will be his lowest since 2011.
  • Q4 new car sales will increase by 8.6% compared to Q4 2021, but not enough to push full-year sales above 14 million units.
  • GM will regain the sales title from Toyota in 2022, but Honda sees the biggest year-on-year decline in sales.

Q4 2022 sales and year-to-date forecast
1

OEM

Q4 2022

vs Q4 2021

CY2022

vs CY 2021

share

CY2021

share

CY2022

difference
from 2021

GM

613,904

40.7%

2,253,641

2.3%

14.6%

16.3%

1.6%

Toyota

550,948

16.1%

2,122,665

-9.0%

15.5%

15.3%

-0.2%

ford

466,447

-7.5%

1,837,603

-2.9%

12.6%

13.3%

0.7%

Stella

342,894

-16.7%

1,542,301

-13.2%

11.8%

11.1%

-0.7%

Hyundai / Kia

383,549

22.3%

1,470,875

-1.2%

9.9%

10.6%

0.7%

Honda

249,379

-13.2%

977,636

-33.3%

9.7%

7.1%

-2.7%

Nissan-Mitsu

216,597

-1.5%

819,989

-24.1%

7.2%

5.9%

-1.3%

Volkswagen

141,374

4.0%

555,404

-13.4%

4.3%

4.0%

-0.2%

Subaru

152,504

26.0%

553,619

-5.2%

3.9%

4.0%

0.1%

Tesla

133,879

16.2%

524,693

48.9%

2.3%

3.8%

1.4%

BMW

107,219

6.3%

357,054

-2.6%

2.4%

2.6%

0.1%

Daimler

86,834

14.2%

349,290

6.0%

2.2%

2.5%

0.3%

mazda

80,689

35.5%

296,081

-11.0%

2.2%

2.1%

-0.1%

Geely

31,735

12.8%

110,589

-11.2%

0.8%

0.8%

0.0%

Tata

20,364

19.1%

67,104

-27.4%

0.6%

0.5%

-0.1%

Rivian

6,715

1,051.8%

18,993

3,152.2%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

Clarity

922

59.9%

2,518

336.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

nation

3,585,953

8.6%

13,860,055

-8.0%

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%


1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights Data

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily sales rates.Both had 27 sales days December 2022 When December 2021although there were 25 sales days November 2022.

About Cox Automotive

Cox Automotive Inc. makes it easy for everyone to buy, sell, own and use cars.Over 27,000 team members in global companies and a family of brands including Autotrader®Dealer.com®Dealer Truck®, kelly blue book®Mannheim®Next Gear Capital®Vin Solutions®vAuto® and Xtime®is passionate about helping millions of car buyers, 40,000 car dealer clients on five continents, and many others across the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately held company. AtlantaNearly annual revenue $20 billionwww.coxautoinc.com

Source Cox Automotive



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