Kristen Lanzavecchia, director of industry solutions at JD Power, said the company’s EV residual value projections are “significantly higher,” with prices in the mid-50% range for internal-combustion engines. said to be approaching.
“That’s a pretty high number,” she said.
Even mainstream EVs from manufacturers such as Hyundai are competitive, she said, even though the new EVs that compete with Tesla in the premium segment show “a lot of positives” on residual values.
Lanzavecchia said a “scarcity premium” will also drive up the value of used EVs until supply catches up with demand.
Black Book predicts that the average for all 3-year-old cars will drop from 73% in October to 61% in October 2025. Pre-pandemic, this value was in the 50% range.
According to Black Book, the average 3-year-old EV didn’t break 35% of stickers in the month before the pandemic. However, according to the company, the 3-year-old model held his 66% of sticker prices in October and is expected to hold 55% in October 2025.
Jeremy Robb, Senior Director of Market Insights and Business Solutions at Cox Automotive, said he expects recent EV leases to hold value comparable to gasoline vehicles.
The three-year contract for the 2022 model is written at a residual value of 66-67% when the lease ends in 2024 and 2025, Rob said.
“We’re seeing the same thing with EVs,” he said. He added that 2022 model year EV leases will set the residual rate at 64-65%.
“It’s pretty expensive,” Rob said.
EVs account for about 5% of the market this year, according to Lanzavecchia, and JD Power expects this share to double over the next two years.