This decline indicates a significant change in the market environment from 2021 onwards. In 2021, strong demand and favorable economic conditions will bring used car sales totaling 40.6 million and retail he hit a record of 21.2 million.
According to Cox’s forecast released last week, total used car sales could fall to 35.6 million in 2023 and retail used car sales to 18.9 million.
Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoak said on Thursday that combined resale and retail sales are likely to fall another 1%, which is far better than the 10% decline in 2022. But it will go down further,” he said.
Chris Frey, senior manager of economics and industry insights at Cox Automotive, says early signs point to used-car sales likely to “hold off” from January into the spring. . He said it is currently uncertain whether sales in that time frame will follow historical trends. It’s been bolstered by tax season that has cash.
Frey said he is holding back on sales forecasts for several reasons. According to Frey, lending costs are clearly affecting market shifts. Affordability, in particular, will “remain a challenge,” especially for subprime and low-income buyers, he said.
Cox Automotive has lowered its pre-owned forecast for 2023, but Frey said he doesn’t expect the second-hand market to bottom out. However, Smoke said a weakening supply of near-new vehicles would affect the market.
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